forthenextfifteen

Who’s Going To Reach 70 Games?

Posted in Uncategorized by ayb984 on December 5, 2008

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John Hollinger of ESPN writes:

We’ve heard the whispers all season: Can the Lakers win 70?

With the L.A. juggernaut off to a 15-2 start that includes an average scoring margin of a staggering 12.8 points per game, and with the Lakers adding star center Andrew Bynum to a mix that already was good enough to win the West a year ago, it’s becoming an increasingly relevant question to ask.

Certainly the capability seems there. The Lakers have one of the game’s best players in Kobe Bryant, two All-Star caliber big men in Bynum and Pau Gasol, and a second unit so capable that it could probably make the Eastern Conference playoffs on its own.

While Lakers coach Phil Jackson downplayed his team’s chances of winning 70 this week, noting the difficulty of the travel for Western Conference teams, the Playoff Odds still see a chance for L.A. In playing out 5,000 simulated seasons, the Playoff Odds have the Lakers winning 70 or more games 515 times, or 10.3 percent of the time (see chart).

As for equaling the 1995-96 Bulls’ mark of 72-10, the Lakers pull that feat off in 187 instances, or 3.7 percent of the time. And to win 73 or more games is still faintly possible as well — they did so in 2 percent of the simulations.

Of course, there’s one problem with that analysis: It ignores strategic considerations. Several recent teams have seemed on pace to break the 70 barrier, only to fall short when they began resting their starters in anticipation of the playoffs. With nobody pushing L.A. for second in the Western Conference, it appears likely they’ll be following the same blueprint. Since even the littlest bit of late-season backsliding makes the goal of winning 70 far more daunting, it stands to reason that the Lakers’ odds are really much lower than the ones I stated above.

In fact, the ideal scenario for a team to win 70 or more would be a situation where a great team has a second team closely pushing it for the conference’s top seed, because then each team has an incentive to keep playing its top performers heavy minutes straight through April. In the absence of a once-a-century collection of talent and chemistry like Jackson’s Bulls had, winning 70 requires more than a great team — it also requires great competition.

That’s why what’s happening in the East is so interesting. Boston (18-2) and Cleveland (15-3) have already run away from the rest of the conference, and both are on pace to threaten the 70-win plateau. For each, the best chance of breaking through would be if the other stays close enough to push them through April. So far, it seems we might be headed for that outcome.

According to the Playoff Odds, it’s Cleveland, not L.A. or Boston, that has the best chance of breaking the 70-win barrier. The Cavs did so in 20.8 percent of the simulations, giving them better than 1-in-5 odds. They match Jordan’s 72-win team in 9.4 percent, and break the record with 73 or more in 5.1 percent.

Boston is right behind them, projecting to win 70 or more games 5.9 percent of the time, and busting through with 73 in 1.2 percent of simulations. And because the Celtics and Cavs can push each other all winter long, these odds seem a bit more realistic than the ones for the Lakers.

Of course, by far the most likely outcome remains that nobody wins 70. Today’s Playoff Odds see all three clubs settling between 62 and 66 wins, which makes sense — while everything has gone right for the league’s power trio so far, too many things can go awry in an 82-game grind for a 70-win season to be probable.

Besides, the ultimate goal is to be on top not in April, but in June. Even if Boston and Cleveland are fighting for the East’s top seed, neither club should be expected to sacrifice its chances in May and June just to scratch out an extra W in February. That’s why the Bulls’ 72-10 mark was such an extraordinary achievement — and why, even with two dominant Eastern teams pushing each other, both are likely to fall short of it.

Odds of winning 70+ games*

Team Winning 70+ Winning 72+ Winning 73+
Cavaliers 20.8% 9.4% 5.1%
Lakers 10.3% 3.7% 2.0%
Celtics 5.9% 2.6% 1.2%

* Based on Playoff Odds tool, through Wednesday’s games (12.03.08)

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I like Hollinger’s idea about the competition in the East breeding incentive for the Cavs and Celtics to reach that 70 win plateau more than the Lakers have the incentive to.  However, I find that flawed because that only stands true under the assumption that teams only viciously compete through the end of the season to jockey for first place in their conference.  Though that is true (remember the Western Conference dogfight last year with under 5 games of separation between the first and eighth seed), you have to remember that the Lakers are playing games not to only to win first place in their conference, but in the whole league for homecourt advantage all the way through to the Finals.  Hollinger even concedes this point at the end.   It’s all about the Finals not the end of the regular season.

But I think his vision becomes clouded because he’s caught up in the resting aspect of the players rather than the homecourt advantage aspect that I am looking at.  He mentions nothing about homecourt advantage when that is actually the main goal of these top teams.  Of course, if these teams find themselves down 20 with 3 minutes to go in a given game, the starters will be pulled from games.  Popovich does this quite often and early with his aging Spurs.  But these 3 teams will scratch and claw to every win they can in order to get homecourt throughout the playoffs and Finals.  Homecourt is so key.  Though the Celtics were taken to 7 games by the Hawks and Cavs last year, the tipping point was homecourt advantage.  The Lakers smashed the Nuggets, Jazz, and Spurs on the road last year in the playoffs.  Celtics couldn’t do shit away from home.  But guess what?  Every series would inevitably end at TD BankNorth Garden and that’s the point.  You can live with playing like shit on the road because that’s not where the series will be decided.  The Lakers and Cavs want that this year.  As of this writing, the Cavs are still undefeated at home.  A team like that could really use the homecourt advantage and I doubt they are going to give that up just so Lebron and company can get a little rest here and there.  At that point in the season, it’s all adrenaline anyway.  Who needs rest?

Therefore, in the end, the Lakers will be pushed throughout the whole season not to keep pace with Portland or New Orleans, but to keep pace with the Cavs and Celtics.  Now I don’t know how this alter’s Hollingers odds, but I’m sure the Lakers will have a better chance at winning 70 games than what he projects.

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2 Responses

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  1. mike said, on December 6, 2008 at 9:45 am

    i tend to be skeptical of a lot of hollinger’s claims. perhaps i just don’t understand his complex statistical analysis. but it seems to be he just puts a bunch of apparently relevant numbers into a computer and trusts that the correct percentage comes out the other end. and who can argue? he says that the 95/96 bulls had a 3.7% chance to win 70, how can we refute that? all we know for sure is that they DID win 70, and in my mind that’s 100%. are we supposed to be more impressed that they did it because they had low odds? then he claims that many teams have had much higher chances to hit 70 and have not. well, his model isn’t having much predictive success, so why trust it now? I’d be more interested to hear about why teams actually have or have not hit 70.

    the relevant points to make, in my mind, about which teams are going to hit 70 are not quantitative differences in some number game. it is qualitative differences in the personality and character of teams. I’ll argue that if we want to think about who’s gonna hit 70 it’s better to talk about the quality of leadership on a team, general team tenacity, the locker room vibe, role player chemistry etc. these things are not measured with numbers.

    From this perspective i think the lakers have some serious growing up to do. We’re not gonna hit 70 by constantly blowing 25 point leads and having to eek games out at the end. That’s simply not a recipe for success (see pacers game). The idea that we can simply “turn it on” whenever we need “it” has plagued us for too long now. We’ve got all the tools to make it to 70, the question is whether we can employ those tools night in and night out all season long.

    meanwhile, I watched the celts dismantle portland last night and they seemed to be clicking on all cylinders. When rajon rondo is consistently getting almost-triple-doubles (and sometimes getting them) they are fucking scary.

  2. ayb984 said, on December 6, 2008 at 11:42 am

    yea dude something about the celtics is just different. its that killer instinct. its that pride. the lakers seem to be satisfied with doing easy things because we can reach 110 a night without really trying. however, we let the momentum of others disrupt our momentum. then at that point when times are tough, our bad habits kick in.

    the bad habit is giving kobe the ball and everyone watching. good thing kobe hits those lucky shots half the time, but the other half he will not. at that point the whole offense gears up on kobe and knows its going to him. that doesnt make it any easier for kobe.

    looks like kobe is gonna have to yell at them more and stop smiling from now on. the lakers play better when someone is pissed at them. its a very paternal relationship the second unit has with phil and kobe. and its understandable…they are still babies.

    plus i think bynum should be in at the end of games. tho phil takes him out understandably when the second unit lets the opposition back in the game, maybe the second unit is just too fast for him. pau runs the floor better. maybe at the end, have both pau and bynum in so that we can clog the lane and get them damn boards. i mean thas how we start the games, why shouldnt we end them the same way?


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